Free engineering guide
November 2026Hourly Matching, Engineered
What the RFNBO revision does to your plant, and when it does not apply.
Law firms explain the rules. This guide explains the engineering: whether the matching rules apply to your plant and, if they do, how each scenario changes capacity factor, sizing and LCOH before the final text lands.
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Hourly Matching, Engineered · PDF · 21 pages · free
01 — What's inside
One page of policy. The rest is engineering.
- The one question that decides whether the matching rules apply to your plant (page 4)
- What hourly matching does to capacity factor, and the four design levers that answer it
- Our model runs at Dakhla (Morocco) and Fuerteventura (Spain): solar-only against hybrid, and how far oversizing pays
- What relaxing the rules is worth per kilogram, against what design is worth
- Ten questions to stress-test your own project
- 01
The 60-second version
p. 2Five takeaways, and who the guide is for.
- 02
The rules on one page
p. 3Additionality, temporal and geographic correlation today, against every proposal on the table.
- 03
Do the matching rules apply to you?
p. 4One question decides which half of the guide applies to your plant.
- 04
Why hourly matching is an engineering problem
pp. 5–6Monthly matching is a volume test. Hourly matching is a shape test, set by your resource, not your contract.
- 05
Four levers, three for compliance
pp. 7–9Run less, oversize or diversify renewables, or firm with batteries. Hydrogen storage firms delivery, not compliance.
- 06
Your resource profile decides
pp. 10–12Capacity factor by resource and electricity route, a published five-site study, and our own runs at two sites.
- 07
What it does to the money
pp. 13–14LCOH impact of each rule variant in 2035, and the Hydrogen Bank bid benchmark.
- 08
The exporter’s view
pp. 15–16Six checks for selling RFNBO into the EU, from electricity route to CBAM and commercial terms.
- 09
Ten questions to stress-test your project
pp. 17–18A printable checklist to run against your own plant.
- 10
How we model this, and every source
pp. 19–208,760-hour profiles and electrolyzer dispatch, with every figure traced to its source.
02 — Three of nine visuals
Try the charts before you download them
V9 · One question decides which articles apply
Question
Does the electrolyzer draw any power from the grid?
Pick an answer to see which half of the guide applies to your plant.
Source: Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/1184, Arts. 3 to 7 and 11; H2 Engineering review, 2 November 2026.
Start with the one question that decides scope
A plant with a direct line to new renewables and no grid power drawn is renewable in every hour. The matching rules only bite on grid-connected plants under a PPA. Answer it here.
Get all the visuals in the PDF03 — In numbers
- 50.85%
- Capacity factor of the one hybrid site in a published five-site study, against 27–29% solar-only
- 19–29%
- More hydrogen from a hybrid than solar-only, same annual energy, in our runs
- €0.10–0.25
- Per kg: what delaying the rules to 2040 is worth in 2035, in published modelling
Sources: Sebbahi et al., Journal of Power Sources, 2026; Hyzen model, feasibility-grade estimate; EDF Europe / CLIMACT, September 2026. Full references in the guide.
Developers, EPC engineers, consultants and investors working on plants that will sell renewable hydrogen into the EU, from inside or outside it.
Engineering analysis, not legal advice.