RFNBO Delegated Act Revision 2026: What Could Change

In 2023, Europe wrote the world's most detailed definition of renewable hydrogen. Three years later, it is rewriting it.

The rules sit in Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/1184, the "RFNBO delegated act". They decide whether hydrogen made from electricity counts as a renewable fuel of non-biological origin (RFNBO). That label is not a technicality. It decides whether a molecule counts toward EU quotas, qualifies for subsidies and earns the premium that green buyers pay. It applies to plants inside the EU and to every exporter selling into it.

The regulation itself scheduled a review report for 1 July 2028. That timeline did not survive contact with the market. In April 2026, the Commission announced a targeted review two years early. It was due by the end of June. In July, the EU's director-general for energy said it would come "very shortly in the autumn". As of mid-October 2026, the proposal has not yet been published, and industry groups are asking for it to be finalised before the end of the year.

For a developer, an EPC or a consultant, this creates an awkward problem: projects being designed today will operate under rules that are still moving. This article sets out what the rules say now, what is being proposed, and how to design a plant that stays bankable whichever way the revision lands.

What the rules say today

The delegated act answers one question: when can the electricity used to make hydrogen be counted as fully renewable? It offers two routes.

Route 1: a direct connection. If the electrolyser is fed by a renewable plant through a direct line, the electricity counts as renewable. The renewable plant must have come into operation no more than 36 months before the electrolyser. If the site is also grid-connected, a smart meter must show that no grid power went into hydrogen production.

Route 2: power from the grid. Here the regulation sets a hierarchy. Grid electricity counts as fully renewable if:

the electrolyser sits in a bidding zone where renewables exceeded 90% of electricity in the previous year, with production capped at a matching number of hours. As of 2023, only Swedish bidding zones qualified;
or the zone's grid emission intensity is below 18 gCO₂eq/MJ, and the producer holds renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) and meets the time and location rules;
or the electricity is consumed while renewable plants are being curtailed, and the electrolyser reduces that curtailment.

When none of those apply, the producer must meet three cumulative criteria.

Criterion	What it requires today
Additionality	Power comes from renewable plants that came into operation no more than 36 months before the electrolyser and received no operating or investment aid
Temporal correlation	Hydrogen is produced in the same calendar month as the renewable electricity until 31 December 2029, then in the same hour from 1 January 2030
Geographical correlation	The renewable plant is in the same bidding zone as the electrolyser, in an interconnected zone with equal or higher day-ahead prices, or in an interconnected offshore zone

Three built-in flexibilities matter for design:

The early-mover window. Plants that come into operation before 1 January 2028 are exempt from the 36-month and no-subsidy rules until 1 January 2038. Capacity added after 2028 is not covered.
The low-price hour. The time rule is always considered met in any hour when the day-ahead price in the zone is at or below €20/MWh, or below 0.36 times the EU carbon allowance price.
Storage. A new storage asset behind the same grid connection point can shift renewable electricity within the matching window.

The rules apply wherever the hydrogen is made. For plants outside the EU, the regulation lets producers use the nearest equivalent to a bidding zone, which could be similar market rules, the physical grid, or as a last resort the country.

Why the review came two years early

The short answer: the market did not arrive on schedule.

The IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2026 found that low-emissions hydrogen production grew 20% in 2025, to almost 1 million tonnes, against total hydrogen demand above 100 million tonnes. The pipeline of projects announced for 2030 shrank by about a quarter in a year, to 27 million tonnes, because of delays and cancellations.

The pressure built in steps:

October 2025. Europe's leading electrolyzer manufacturers wrote to the Commission President, arguing that rigid additionality and correlation rules were stalling projects.
Late March 2026. Senior energy officials from Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Poland asked the Commission to bring the review forward and finish it in 2026. They pointed to delayed investment decisions, stalled offtake agreements and electrolyzer costs that had risen instead of falling.
22 April 2026. The Commission's AccelerateEU communication committed to a targeted review in the second quarter of 2026.
14 July 2026. Director-General for Energy Celine Gauer told the European Parliament the review would come in the autumn. She said the hydrogen ramp-up was "far, far away" from expectations, and signalled that hourly matching could start later than planned.
July and September 2026. Two joint letters from industry associations, including Hydrogen Europe, Eurogas and VDMA, asked the Commission to publish the proposal and finish the revision before the end of 2026.

Not everyone wants looser rules. A coalition coordinated by Transport & Environment and Bellona Europa argued in February 2026 that the current criteria stop electrolyzers from pulling existing clean power off the grid. Its view is that an early review erodes trust among investors already building under the 2023 rules.

What could change

The review is described as "targeted". Nobody is proposing to scrap the three criteria. The debate is about timing and thresholds, and it centres on three levers.

Lever	Rule today	Member states' ask (March 2026)	Industry ask (September 2026)
Additionality transition	Exemption for plants operating before 1 Jan 2028, valid until 2038	Move the cut-off to 2035, with grandfathering for up to ten years after	Postpone full application to 2035
Temporal correlation	Monthly until end-2029, hourly from 2030	Keep monthly matching beyond 2030 for member states with relatively clean grids	Keep monthly matching, or at least postpone hourly matching to 2035
High-renewables exemption	Zones above 90% renewable electricity	Commission to assess lowering the 90% threshold	Lower it to 80%

What the Commission has signalled. Officially, only that a targeted review is coming and that the hydrogen ramp-up has fallen far short. Celine Gauer's July remarks suggest hourly matching is likely to start later than 2030, and that the new text should not leave producers with an unmanageably narrow matching window. Industry participants also expect the additionality cut-off to move.

What analysts expect. Capstone, a policy consultancy, predicted in May 2026 that the Commission would push both additionality and hourly matching to 2032–2033, short of the 2035 that industry wants. That is a forecast, not a Commission position.

What happens after publication. Industry participants expect at least four weeks of public feedback. The European Parliament and Council can then object to a delegated act within their scrutiny period. Even a fast process leaves the final rules uncertain into 2027.

Two details deserve attention because they get less coverage:

Grandfathering. Every serious proposal includes protection for projects built under the current rules. How long it lasts, and which version of the rules a plant is locked into, will matter more to lenders than the headline dates.
The 90% threshold. Lowering it to 80% would widen the simplified regime beyond Sweden to zones with fast-growing renewable shares. Which zones would qualify depends on the final number and on how the share is calculated.

How to design a plant that works under both outcomes

Nobody can tell you today which dates the final text will carry. You can still design a project whose economics hold if the rules stay as they are, and improve if they loosen. Six practical moves:

Treat 1 January 2028 as the only date you can bank on. The early-mover exemption is in force law today. A plant operating before that date is spared the 36-month and no-subsidy rules until 2038. If the revision extends the window, you lose nothing by being early. If it does not, a plant that slips to 2028 loses the exemption entirely. Watch phasing: under the current text, capacity added after 2028 is not covered.
Make hourly matching your base case, and monthly matching your upside. Size the electrolyzer, the renewable overbuild and any storage as if hourly matching starts in 2030. If the rules relax, the same plant simply qualifies more of its operating hours. Designing for monthly matching and hoping is the riskier bet, because hourly matching typically cuts the hours an electrolyzer can claim as renewable and so raises the cost per kilogram. Our capacity factor article shows how sensitive LCOH is to those hours.
Count the flexibilities already in the text. Hours when the day-ahead price is at or below €20/MWh always satisfy the time rule. New storage behind the same connection point can move renewable energy within the matching window. Both belong in an hourly dispatch model, not in a footnote.
Check whether a direct connection reduces your exposure. The direct-line route has its own conditions, including the 36-month rule and metering if the site is also grid-connected. It does not depend on the grid-based time and location tests that are under review. For many export projects outside Europe, a dedicated renewable plant feeding the electrolyzer is the default anyway, as our analysis of export corridors to Europe discusses.
Put the regulation in the contracts. PPAs and offtake agreements signed now should say what happens if the RFNBO criteria change: who carries the cost, and whether volumes or prices reopen. Our guide to hydrogen offtake agreement structure covers the clauses buyers and lenders look at.
Show lenders the scenarios, not a single number. Run LCOH under at least two cases: current rules, and a relaxed case close to the industry proposals. A project that is bankable in the first and better in the second is the strongest possible position during a rule change.

What to watch next

When	Milestone
Autumn 2026 (pending)	Commission publishes the targeted review proposal
At least 4 weeks after	Public feedback period, as industry expects
After adoption	European Parliament and Council scrutiny of the delegated act
Before end-2026	A new EU hydrogen strategy, per the Commission
1 January 2028	Current cut-off for the early-mover additionality exemption
1 July 2028	Original deadline for the Commission's impact report
1 January 2030	Current start of hourly matching

When the proposal lands, read three things first: the new additionality cut-off, the new start date for hourly matching, and the grandfathering clause. Those three numbers will move LCOH and bankability more than anything else in the text.

Conclusion

Europe is not abandoning its definition of green hydrogen. It is adjusting the pace at which the strictest parts apply. The direction of travel points to more time and more flexibility, but the dates are not written yet, and every month of delay is a month of uncertainty for projects trying to reach a final investment decision.

The practical answer is not to wait. Design for the rules in force, model the relaxed case as upside, and write the regulatory risk into your contracts. Projects that do this will be ready to move the day the new text is published.

Hyzen models RFNBO compliance hour by hour, alongside electrolyzer sizing and LCOH, so you can compare rule scenarios on your own site in minutes rather than weeks.

Editorial Notes

This article reflects the status of the review as of 12 October 2026, when the Commission's proposal had not yet been published. We will update it when the text is released. The 2032–2033 dates attributed to Capstone are an analyst forecast, not a Commission position.